Links - 01/17/2023
“I think too often, young analysts believe that the goal of an analyst is to demonstrate how much they know about a company and build a perfect earnings model. I don't think I've ever seen an analyst model their way to a great stock idea! I view the goal of the analyst as developing conviction that the consensus is wrong about something important. Then their job is to communicate why they believe they are correct and the consensus is wrong and to compute the valuation impact. Once we own a stock, their job is to actively monitor new information to assess if their view or the consensus view is coming to fruition. There are a lot of important areas the consensus can be wrong: management quality, business quality, long-term potential differing from current results, valuable non-earning assets, and so on. To make excess profits, you need to hold a nonconsensus view and be right.” —Bill Nygren [Source]
Founders Podcast: #286 Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger speaking directly to you (LINK)
What I learned from reading All I Want To Know Is Where I'm Going To Die So I'll Never Go There: Buffett & Munger – A Study in Simplicity and Uncommon, Common Sense by Peter Bevelin.
Permanent Equity’s 2022 Annual Letter (Letter, Podcast Discussion)
SECURE Act 2.0 – 16 Key Tax and Retirement Provisions (LINK)
Michael Green and Harley Bassman sit down with Eric Basmajian to discuss the “most-anticipated recession of all-time!” (video) (LINK)
The Getty Family’s Trust Issues - by Evan Osnos (LINK)
Heirs to an iconic fortune sought out a wealth manager who would assuage their progressive consciences. Now their dispute is exposing dynastic secrets.
Sweden’s (Not So) Rare Earth Metals - by Peter Zeihan (video) (LINK)
A Different Perspective Podcast: William Green (LINK)
Invest Like the Best Podcast: Miles Grimshaw - The DNA of Software Companies (LINK)
Dan Carlin's Hardcore History Podcast: Twilight of the Aesir (LINK)
This show picks up where Dan's Thor's Angels show left off. In the early Middle Ages Pagan Germanic-language speakers like the Vikings are a dying breed. Many of their contemporaries wish they'd die faster.
The Rest Is History Podcast: 295. The Rise of the Nazis (LINK)
Where do the origins of Nazism lie? The Second Reich? Hitler’s time in Vienna? The First World War? Join Tom and Dominic in the first of their four-part series on the Rise of the Nazis as they discuss its origins.
Brutality of prehistoric life revealed by Europe’s bog bodies [H/T @paulg] (LINK)
“For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.” —Niccolo Machiavelli