Links - 01/30/2023
“There is a complicating factor that makes the handling of investment mistakes more difficult. This is the ego in each of us. None of us likes to admit to himself that he has been wrong. If we have made a mistake in buying a stock but can sell the stock at a small profit, we have somehow lost any sense of having been foolish. On the other hand, if we sell at a small loss we are quite unhappy about the whole matter. This reaction, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process. More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could ‘at least come out even’ than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous.” —Phil Fisher
Rational Reflections has decided to make all of its content free. It’s well worth checking out the archive, starting with the Daily Journal profile.
David Poppe’s Q4 2022 Letter to Investors (LINK)
Revisiting Our “Horribly Wrong” Paper: That Was Then, This Is Now - by Rob Arnott and Amie Ko (LINK)
Mark Spitznagel Sees ‘Tinderbox-Timebomb’ in Financial Markets ($) (LINK)
Universa Investments, the hedge fund advised by “The Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb, told clients that ballooning debts across the global economy are poised to wreak havoc on markets rivaling the Great Depression.
“It is objectively the greatest tinderbox-timebomb in financial history — greater than the late 1920s, and likely with similar market consequences,” Mark Spitznagel, 51, the firm’s chief investment officer, wrote in a letter to investors this week obtained by Bloomberg.
…In the letter this week, he added new fiery rhetoric around global debt levels. “The correction that was once natural and healthy has instead become a contagious inferno capable of destroying the system entirely,” he wrote. “The world is just too levered today, the debt construct just too big.”
Fireside Chat between Sean Iddings and Blas Moros (video) (LINK)
Carolina Stories (Practice Different) - by Stephen Vafier (LINK)
This Week in Intelligent Investing Podcast: The Opportunity in Beaten-Down, Money-Losing Growth Businesses (LINK)
Another Podcast: Generative AI (LINK)
Capital Allocators Podcast: John-Austin Saviano — Emerging Managers and IC Governance (LINK)
The Rest Is History Podcast: 299. The Greatest Female Pharaoh (LINK)
“Familiar things happen, and mankind does not bother about them. It requires a very unusual mind to undertake the analysis of the obvious.” —Alfred North Whitehead