Links - 11/2/2020
“What could cause a market decline? A drop in investor confidence -- perhaps the commodity that's most freely available today -- would likely be the key, but the reason is hard to foresee. "We're not expecting any surprises," people say, and that has become our new favorite oxymoron. Surprises are never expected -- by definition -- and yet they're what move the market. (If they were expected, their effects would already be priced into the market, rendering a price reaction unnecessary.) The next surprise might be geo-political (oil embargo, war in Korea), economic (tight money, slowing profit growth) or internal to the market (competition from bonds at higher interest rates, discovery of a fraud), but it's most likely to be something that no one has anticipated -- including us.” —Howard Marks, September 1997 ("Are You An Investor or a Speculator?")
Covid-19, Climate Change, And The Need For A New Marshall Plan - by Jeremy Grantham (LINK)
Horizon Kinetics 3rd Quarter 2020 Commentary (Letter, Conference Call)
Doing Scuttlebutt on Company Culture (LINK)
A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future [free registration required] [H/T @pcordway] (LINK)
The Transcript 11.02.20 (LINK)
This Week in Intelligent Investing Podcast: Dividend Policy and Capital Allocation | Forecasting Surprises and Disasters (LINK)
Odd Lots Podcast: A Forensic Accountant On Why Chinese Internet Companies Are So Tough To Analyze [with Steve Clapham] (LINK) [Steve was kind enough to send me a copy of his upcoming book, The Smart Money Method, which I started this weekend, am enjoying, and recommend checking out. His online courses are also worth checking out, HERE.]
Roddy Boyd on Zer0esTV (video) (LINK)
Radiolab Podcast: How to Win Friends and Influence Baboons (LINK)
The Peter Attia Drive Podcast: #135 - BJ Miller, M.D.: How understanding death leads to a better life (LINK)
Common Probability Errors to Avoid (LINK)
“In life the challenge is not so much to figure out how best to play the game; the challenge is to figure out what game you’re playing.” —Kwame Anthony Appiah