Links - 7/13/2021
“It is wrong to blame anyone for failing to forecast accurately in an unpredictable world. However, it seems fair to blame professionals for believing they can succeed in an impossible task. Claims for correct intuitions in an unpredictable situation are self-delusional at best, sometimes worse. In the absence of valid cues, intuitive ‘hits’ are due either to luck or to lies. If you find this conclusion surprising, you still have a lingering belief that intuition is magic. Remember this rule: intuition cannot be trusted in the absence of stable regularities in the environment.” —Daniel Kahneman (“Thinking, Fast and Slow”)
Clean jet fuel needs to be more like a microwave oven - by Bill Gates (LINK)
Lumber Wipes Out 2021 Gain With Demand Ebbing After Record Boom (LINK)
Lumber, which at one point was among the world’s best-performing commodities as the pandemic sent construction demand soaring and stoked fears of inflation, has officially wiped out all of its staggering gains for the year.
Too Smart - by Morgan Housel (LINK)
Odd Lots Podcast: The Labor Episode: How the Omni Hotel Chain Is Dealing With Hiring Right Now (LINK)
Private Equity Masters Podcast (4): David Rubenstein – Carlyle Group (LINK)
The Long View Podcast: David Herro: ‘We Are Not at All Afraid to Vary From an Index’ (LINK)
The Acquirers Podcast: Venture Value: David Barr on small and micro growth and value (LINK)
The Knowledge Project Podcast: #115 Danny Meyer - Hospitality and Humanity (LINK)
Land of the Giants Podcast: The Virtual Future of Restaurants (LINK)
20VC Podcast: Jet.com’s Marc Lore (LINK)
Invest Like the Best Podcast: David Sacks - How to Operate a SaaS Startup (LINK)
Cold Call Podcast: Strategies for Underdogs: How Alibaba’s Taobao Beat eBay in China (LINK)
Post-Vaccination Infections Come in 2 Different Flavors (LINK)
“What then is freedom? The power to live as one wishes.” —Marcus Tullius Cicero
“The only freedom which deserves the name is that of pursuing our own good, in our own way, so long as we do not attempt to deprive others of theirs, or impede their efforts to obtain it.” —John Stuart Mill