Links - 8/5/2020
“Two of the questions I get most often these days are, ‘What kind of cycle are we in?’ and ‘Where do we stand in it?’ My main response is that the developments of the last five months are non-cyclical in nature, and thus not subject to the usual cycle analysis. The normal cycle starts off from an economic and market low; overcomes psychological and capital market headwinds; benefits from gathering strength in the economy; witnesses corporate results that exceed expectations; is amplified by optimistic corporate decisions; is reinforced by increasingly positive investor sentiment; and thus fosters rising prices for stocks and other risk assets until they become excessive at the top (and vice versa on the downside). But in the current case, a moderate recovery – marked by reasonable growth, realistic expectations, an absence of corporate overexpansion and a lack of investor euphoria – was struck down by an unexpected meteor strike.” —Howard Marks
Howard Marks Memo: Time for Thinking (LINK)
Public to Private Equity in the United States: A Long-Term Look - by Michael J. Mauboussin & Dan Callahan (LINK)
Co-founder of Clayton Homes dies in helicopter crash [H/T Linc] (LINK)
Greenlight Capital Q2 Letter [H/T Linc] (LINK)
Immunology Is Where Intuition Goes to Die - by Ed Yong (LINK)
“One thing I have learned as a competitor is that there are clear distinctions between what it takes to be decent, what it takes to be good, what it takes to be great, and what it takes to be among the best…. When aiming for the top, your path requires an engaged, searching mind. You have to make obstacles spur you to creative new angles in the learning process. Let setbacks deepen your resolve. You should always come off an injury or a loss better than when you went down. Another angle on this issue is the unfortunate correlation for some between consistency and monotony. It is all too easy to get caught up in the routines of our lives and to lose creativity in the learning process. Even people who are completely devoted to cultivating a certain discipline often fall into a mental rut, a disengaged lifestyle that implies excellence can be obtained by going through the motions.” —Josh Waitzkin