“I really don't [think that there's value in using quantitative tools to measure and manage risk]. We don't do it at all. First of all, what is risk? It's the probability of a negative event in the future. What do we know about that? What does the past tell us about that? The past has relevance, but it's not absolute…. I don't think risk can be measured. I don't think the past is absolutely applicable. In fact, the big money is lost at the juncture when the past stops being applicable, which happens eventually. And I don't think that the possibilities in the future can be synthesized into inputs that are sufficient to let a computer decide what's risky or not.” —Howard Marks
Links - 07/05/2022
Links - 07/05/2022
Links - 07/05/2022
“I really don't [think that there's value in using quantitative tools to measure and manage risk]. We don't do it at all. First of all, what is risk? It's the probability of a negative event in the future. What do we know about that? What does the past tell us about that? The past has relevance, but it's not absolute…. I don't think risk can be measured. I don't think the past is absolutely applicable. In fact, the big money is lost at the juncture when the past stops being applicable, which happens eventually. And I don't think that the possibilities in the future can be synthesized into inputs that are sufficient to let a computer decide what's risky or not.” —Howard Marks